最近、積立NISA(正式名称: つみたてNISA)を始めたので、投資の勉強を始めました。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数(38.5万人)を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。
そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。
今回は第9回です。
2021年3月5日の12分45秒の動画です。アメリカの最近の株価下落に対する見解についてです。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年3月5日「米国株ボラティリティ、まだ上がる!」です。
Those of you new to my channel my name is Dan. I'm a former wall street guy former hedge fund guy. We would appreciate if you guys subscribe to my channel as well as press the thumbs up button if you enjoyed today's content.
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数(38.5万人)を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。
そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。
今回は第9回です。
2021年3月5日の12分45秒の動画です。アメリカの最近の株価下落に対する見解についてです。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年3月5日「米国株ボラティリティ、まだ上がる!」です。
2021年3月5日 Stock Market Volatility will RISE MORE!
Hey everyone Dan Takahashi here. Today the US markets again was a bloodbath especially in the tech sector and I want to give you an update as to what happened in each sector how the markets are moving.
【フレーズ】bloodbath
【意味】血祭り、大惨事
【フレーズ】as to
【意味】~について(aboutと同義)
And today specifically I want to talk about volatility. And why I think that right now this movement in the market although we may have some, you know, temporary uh swings here and there the dow move is probably going to continue a little bit longer. And the reason why I feel this conviction is the volatility index and the way that it's moving is very different from at least the last one or two times the market went down and then we had a rally right away this time I don't think we're going to have it come back that quickly and I'll explain to you why.
Those of you new to my channel my name is Dan. I'm a former wall street guy former hedge fund guy. We would appreciate if you guys subscribe to my channel as well as press the thumbs up button if you enjoyed today's content.
残りのスクリプト
today is
currently march the 5th
it is tokyo japan time 10 32 a.m meaning
that it
is uh currently still march the 4th 8 32
p.m new york eastern time so uh as usual
guys let's get started uh let's look at
the
markets today and see uh what we should
be doing and how we should be thinking
about
uh today's situation so first of all
guys i want to go through sector by
sector and see what happened here and
then i'll talk about the volatility
later on
if you're new to investing guys if you
don't understand my lingo if i'm talking
just too fast
go to my channel homepage go to the
investing for beginners playlist
review some of those uh videos or see
the below description area i review some
of those videos as well
so looking at this currently right now
uh first going through the s p 500 today
the volume was quite
big and that worries me a lot uh there's
a lot of
selling pressure here and we still
haven't even touched yet this big line
which is the 100 day moving average i'm
looking at the spy which is the s p 500
etf it's the largest etf in the world
and this volume pressure here it hasn't
been
this large since well
last year in june so the biggest
comparison we're having is the
june volume now june you note that it
went down
then went up and then went down and
there was a bit of a consolidation
period
all the way from june 4th 2020
to about july 9th so almost one month of
just kind of a zigzagging
and it looks to me like right now we're
in a bit of a similar
situation where we're probably going to
have some zigzags up and down in the
market
uh and i don't think we're going to be
suddenly going right back
up because the volume indicates to me
that this selling pressure is as big as
it was
last june and it's different from the
previous points that we saw
let's say in last september or just in
the end of january so that's the first
thing that stands out to me here
uh otherwise we also look at the dow
jones volume today dow jones volume
still wasn't that big today again the
selling pressure really isn't from the
dow jones
uh but still we should take note of this
uh qqq of course tech this is the beast
right now
it's getting hit big time this volume is
as big as it was during the selling
pressure of coronavirus
so this is where we're seeing a lot of
selling pressure lots of volume right
now
and this is where we're seeing things
just kind of falling out of bed and
uh you know this is i think where the
selling pressure is not going to bait
anytime
soon here unfortunately now let's move
on to some other sectors here let's look
at the small cap sectors here iwm
this was also pretty big probably the
largest since it was
june so i think this is worth noting too
um
you know not as big as qqq i mean that's
the biggest by far
the tech sector that's the biggest fall
by far
look at some other spaces healthcare
here not humongous
biotech biotech this is getting hit very
fast right now
especially this was a hot sector
especially during the coronavirus
pandemic
and now it's getting hit very quickly
it's approaching the 200 day
do note that even for nasdaq yet we
still haven't hit to the 200 day which
is the blue line yet
so it may be likely that it may be going
for this 200-day it is possible here
uh otherwise we're seeing here uh xrt
which is the retail sector not really
that much big volume
we've seen pretty big volume here
consumer discretionary right okay so
unnecessary items
uh this would probably get hit here this
is i believe the
uh materials sector we also saw a bit of
a hit here with commodities
okay that's volume pressure is big but
not humongous compared to just the last
few months
uh telecom not really home builders uh
okay that's a pretty big
volume here as well especially i think
kind of
what the home builders are getting
freaked out about right now is because
the yields are going up so if the
30-year yield goes up that means that
the mortgage rate goes up if the
mortgage rate goes up
that means less people are going to buy
homes less people buy homes that means
less demand for home construction so i
think that's what's going on right now
socks oh that's a ugly one here look at
this one that's a big ugly one this
semiconductor sector
this is in trouble that's a big amount
of selling volume here so
that need to keep a close eye on right
now uh pharma right now we're looking at
this as well
uh yeah not nothing really yeah nothing
big
in terms of volume here this is here uh
healthcare as well this is getting hit
but not huge amount
uh trust communication services nope
nope
uh mature uh this is the uh mining of
metals finally it got hit today i've
been talking about this for a while so
you know eventually he's going to get
hit and now it's getting hit right now
uh the transportation not really here
nope consumer staples consumer staples a
little bit of selling pressure here
utilities not really
industrials not that big a selling
pressure it's it's big but
not gigantic it's okay it's a decent
amount it sits around last june
energy continues to go up because crude
oil prices go up and
this uh buying pressure was not big here
but it's still nonetheless there
and then financials probably the least
amount of selling pressure here because
of rising yields which is good for banks
because banks make their money
by uh borrowing in the short term and
lending out long term so rising yields
is good for their
what's called profit margin so overall
guys today looking at the sector it
seems like it's more the same but
the selling pressure is getting really
pronounced i thought in the
semiconductor space this is
big here it's a big amount of selling
pressure now let me talk to you today
about
volatility and why i don't think that
this is going to end anytime soon
volatility is a measure of fear right
and a measure of fear
basically means how scared people are
but it also just means
how volatile markets are and what does
that mean we're basically talking about
how
much markets are moving uh this
basically indicates
the movement rate that the market is
expecting 30 days from now okay that
seems complicated but it just basically
means
usually when markets go down they fall a
lot faster
than when they go up so when they're
going down usually the movement rate or
the volatility
goes up and now when we look at this
movement rate especially looking at
volatility right now
we're seeing that it's around 28.6 right
now
and this is what scares me a little bit
because it's not that high
uh you know last time when markets
stopped going down
in end of january it went all the way
back up to 38 very fast
so the fear gauge got really high and
that usually means the market's oversold
this time it's not oversold
at all and it's making a second attempt
to probably break out to the
february 24th high of 28. it looks like
it's probably gonna break through here
uh look at this you know november right
into the us election here
it got the 40. uh we can see other times
here
what other times here okay september
when there was a tech route when the
tech stocks were going down it also got
the 38
and then june last year when markets
growing up i got the 40. so i feel like
this volatility index
for us to say that this is really over
it's probably got to get to more like
30 30 to 40 level and right now it's
still at 28 to me indicating that this
movement
down is probably going to last a bit
longer
that's right i think it's gonna last a
little bit longer and this
fear gauge to me is saying uh uh no
we're not done yet we're probably
still gonna the market's still gonna get
hit more and this fear gauge needs to go
up a little bit more because it's still
not a lot of pronounced fear
usually markets don't stop going going
down until everybody's scared
and not everybody scared it we can see
this from the numbers as well
also just look a note guys i do watch
the cnn fear and greed index
as well not always but it's sometimes a
pretty good indicator
and right now we're not even close we're
just past the 50 mark here so
we're not really at a big fear level
whatsoever on this index
this could go down a lot more before we
get into the real fear territory
it could at least go into the 40s or 30s
range and right now we're just at like
around 45 or something like that you
know it's a little it's around 50 or
something like that so
i i don't think that this is showing any
fear as well
to me again at that part it's kind of
scary uh
finally we're seeing here so you know
volatility is rising especially i
thought
it's rising more pronounced in the high
yield space the corporate bond space
this is where
volatility is really picking up here and
it got really low do note that it got
down to six here
and down to six was actually at the same
as pre-coronavirus level so
i think this volatility in the high
yield space is what's pushing up high
yield are basically guys junk bonds junk
bonds are basically bonds that
yield uh very high because the default
risk is a bit high
and therefore they yield very high it's
it's close as you can get to
a a stock right so it's a high
risk bond now looking at this here this
i think is pushing things up very
quickly
and i think that's what's putting
pressure on the vix the stock market
uh volatility index to go up here so
we're probably going to see the short
term go up a little bit more i don't
think it's going to spike to like 50 or
60
but i think that it's going to go into
the 30s or 40s range in the next
one to maybe three weeks or so so we
should stay on guard for
that so listening to all this guys
what's my consensus and what i think you
should be doing
right now is the time to be hedging
that's right hedging
hedging what does that mean no that
doesn't mean trimming bushes that means
protecting your portfolio and
there's a number of ways to do this as
usual guys investing is and always will
be self-responsibility
uh and do note that guys i'm just
telling you what i think and i'm also
telling you what i am doing myself
it doesn't mean you have to follow me
take everything i say with a grain of
salt take everything what anybody says
with a grain of salt
that's usually just the best way to
proceed with any type of youtuber
influencer or anything related to any
type of information i think so
as usual with that out of the way guys
today you know you want to protect your
long-term portfolio
of course we're all saving this for
retirement but sometimes there's big
swings and when there's big swings
we don't usually usually we want to
protect ourselves from these big swings
because
we don't want to lose too much during
these big downturns otherwise we can get
what's margin call or we just don't have
enough cash to buy
when things look really cheap so to do
this i advocate that look you can
increase your cash position here in your
long-term portfolio
or in your short-term portfolio this is
where you do hedging or this is where
you
you know protect yourself and i usually
advocate buying cfds
yes i do use what's called ig ig's a big
securities company they've been around
since 1940
or 1976 or something like that i don't
know they're pretty safe
the link is below that's what i'm using
you can also sell futures
you could also just short etfs you could
short stocks there's a lot of ways to do
it
usually for me when i do something short
term
i want something simple and quick and
easy because it's short term
and i'm less concerned about the cost
because i'm only keeping this on short
term
so i usually use cfds or just futures
and just one click
and then you get a lot of margin and
just with a little bit of money you can
protect a lot
it's used for protection i'm not trying
to bet on the market crashing
it's just protecting my portfolio so
that's usually i think the best way to
use it and i think right now you need to
continue to use protection
because i don't think that this uh
downtrend is over
so that's my take today guys again the
link is below for
uh the company that i'm using you don't
need to use it it's all up to you
but uh do note that i think some
protection is gonna be needed especially
into the numbers today
uh i'll you know i think that these
numbers they need to come in probably
around like a hundred thousand
is the non-farm payroll support that we
need to look for yeah uh
that's probably the numbers that we need
if that comes in around then
then um yeah we could probably see the
uh
market stabilize but anything that's too
low or too high
and the bonus will just continue to go
up and the stock markets will just
continue to get hit
so stay tuned and guys just be aware in
about 12 hours from now we'll get that
report coming out
uh thanks guys for watching my channel
if you enjoyed today's content please
press the subscription button as well as
the like button
and would appreciate if you guys
subscribe to my channel as well thanks
so much guys have a
safe day and safe investing guys thanks
again
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