最近、積立NISA(正式名称: つみたてNISA)を始めたので、投資の勉強を始めました。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数(38.5万人)を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。

そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。


今回は第9回です。
2021年3月5日の12分45秒の動画です。アメリカの最近の株価下落に対する見解についてです。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年3月5日「米国株ボラティリティ、まだ上がる!」です。

2021年3月5日 Stock Market Volatility will RISE MORE!



Hey everyone Dan Takahashi here. Today the US markets again was a bloodbath especially in the tech sector and I want to give you an update as to what happened in each sector how the markets are moving.
【フレーズ】bloodbath
【意味】血祭り、大惨事
【フレーズ】as to  
【意味】~について(aboutと同義)
 
 And today specifically I want to talk about volatility. And why I think that right now this movement in the market although we may have some, you know, temporary uh swings here and there the dow move is probably going to continue a little bit longer. And the reason why I feel this conviction is the volatility index and the way that it's moving is very different from at least the last one or two times the market went down and then we had a rally right away this time I don't think we're going to have it come back that quickly and I'll explain to you why.

Those of you new to my channel my name is Dan. I'm a former wall street guy former hedge fund guy. We would appreciate if you guys subscribe to my channel as well as press the thumbs up button if you enjoyed today's content.

残りのスクリプト

 today is

currently march the 5th

it is tokyo japan time 10 32 a.m meaning

that it

is uh currently still march the 4th 8 32

p.m new york eastern time so uh as usual

guys let's get started uh let's look at

the

markets today and see uh what we should

be doing and how we should be thinking

about

uh today's situation so first of all

guys i want to go through sector by

sector and see what happened here and

then i'll talk about the volatility

later on

if you're new to investing guys if you

don't understand my lingo if i'm talking

just too fast

go to my channel homepage go to the

investing for beginners playlist

review some of those uh videos or see

the below description area i review some

of those videos as well

so looking at this currently right now

uh first going through the s p 500 today

the volume was quite

big and that worries me a lot uh there's

a lot of

selling pressure here and we still

haven't even touched yet this big line

which is the 100 day moving average i'm

looking at the spy which is the s p 500

etf it's the largest etf in the world

and this volume pressure here it hasn't

been

this large since well

last year in june so the biggest

comparison we're having is the

june volume now june you note that it

went down

then went up and then went down and

there was a bit of a consolidation

period

all the way from june 4th 2020

to about july 9th so almost one month of

just kind of a zigzagging

and it looks to me like right now we're

in a bit of a similar

situation where we're probably going to

have some zigzags up and down in the

market

uh and i don't think we're going to be

suddenly going right back

up because the volume indicates to me

that this selling pressure is as big as

it was

last june and it's different from the

previous points that we saw

let's say in last september or just in

the end of january so that's the first

thing that stands out to me here

uh otherwise we also look at the dow

jones volume today dow jones volume

still wasn't that big today again the

selling pressure really isn't from the

dow jones

uh but still we should take note of this

uh qqq of course tech this is the beast

right now

it's getting hit big time this volume is

as big as it was during the selling

pressure of coronavirus

so this is where we're seeing a lot of

selling pressure lots of volume right

now

and this is where we're seeing things

just kind of falling out of bed and

uh you know this is i think where the

selling pressure is not going to bait

anytime

soon here unfortunately now let's move

on to some other sectors here let's look

at the small cap sectors here iwm

this was also pretty big probably the

largest since it was

june so i think this is worth noting too

um

you know not as big as qqq i mean that's

the biggest by far

the tech sector that's the biggest fall

by far

look at some other spaces healthcare

here not humongous

biotech biotech this is getting hit very

fast right now

especially this was a hot sector

especially during the coronavirus

pandemic

and now it's getting hit very quickly

it's approaching the 200 day

do note that even for nasdaq yet we

still haven't hit to the 200 day which

is the blue line yet

so it may be likely that it may be going

for this 200-day it is possible here

uh otherwise we're seeing here uh xrt

which is the retail sector not really

that much big volume

we've seen pretty big volume here

consumer discretionary right okay so

unnecessary items

uh this would probably get hit here this

is i believe the

uh materials sector we also saw a bit of

a hit here with commodities

okay that's volume pressure is big but

not humongous compared to just the last

few months

uh telecom not really home builders uh

okay that's a pretty big

volume here as well especially i think

kind of

what the home builders are getting

freaked out about right now is because

the yields are going up so if the

30-year yield goes up that means that

the mortgage rate goes up if the

mortgage rate goes up

that means less people are going to buy

homes less people buy homes that means

less demand for home construction so i

think that's what's going on right now

socks oh that's a ugly one here look at

this one that's a big ugly one this

semiconductor sector

this is in trouble that's a big amount

of selling volume here so

that need to keep a close eye on right

now uh pharma right now we're looking at

this as well

uh yeah not nothing really yeah nothing

big

in terms of volume here this is here uh

healthcare as well this is getting hit

but not huge amount

uh trust communication services nope

nope

uh mature uh this is the uh mining of

metals finally it got hit today i've

been talking about this for a while so

you know eventually he's going to get

hit and now it's getting hit right now

uh the transportation not really here

nope consumer staples consumer staples a

little bit of selling pressure here

utilities not really

industrials not that big a selling

pressure it's it's big but

not gigantic it's okay it's a decent

amount it sits around last june

energy continues to go up because crude

oil prices go up and

this uh buying pressure was not big here

but it's still nonetheless there

and then financials probably the least

amount of selling pressure here because

of rising yields which is good for banks

because banks make their money

by uh borrowing in the short term and

lending out long term so rising yields

is good for their

what's called profit margin so overall

guys today looking at the sector it

seems like it's more the same but

the selling pressure is getting really

pronounced i thought in the

semiconductor space this is

big here it's a big amount of selling

pressure now let me talk to you today

about

volatility and why i don't think that

this is going to end anytime soon

volatility is a measure of fear right

and a measure of fear

basically means how scared people are

but it also just means

how volatile markets are and what does

that mean we're basically talking about

how

much markets are moving uh this

basically indicates

the movement rate that the market is

expecting 30 days from now okay that

seems complicated but it just basically

means

usually when markets go down they fall a

lot faster

than when they go up so when they're

going down usually the movement rate or

the volatility

goes up and now when we look at this

movement rate especially looking at

volatility right now

we're seeing that it's around 28.6 right

now

and this is what scares me a little bit

because it's not that high

uh you know last time when markets

stopped going down

in end of january it went all the way

back up to 38 very fast

so the fear gauge got really high and

that usually means the market's oversold

this time it's not oversold

at all and it's making a second attempt

to probably break out to the

february 24th high of 28. it looks like

it's probably gonna break through here

uh look at this you know november right

into the us election here

it got the 40. uh we can see other times

here

what other times here okay september

when there was a tech route when the

tech stocks were going down it also got

the 38

and then june last year when markets

growing up i got the 40. so i feel like

this volatility index

for us to say that this is really over

it's probably got to get to more like

30 30 to 40 level and right now it's

still at 28 to me indicating that this

movement

down is probably going to last a bit

longer

that's right i think it's gonna last a

little bit longer and this

fear gauge to me is saying uh uh no

we're not done yet we're probably

still gonna the market's still gonna get

hit more and this fear gauge needs to go

up a little bit more because it's still

not a lot of pronounced fear

usually markets don't stop going going

down until everybody's scared

and not everybody scared it we can see

this from the numbers as well

also just look a note guys i do watch

the cnn fear and greed index

as well not always but it's sometimes a

pretty good indicator

and right now we're not even close we're

just past the 50 mark here so

we're not really at a big fear level

whatsoever on this index

this could go down a lot more before we

get into the real fear territory

it could at least go into the 40s or 30s

range and right now we're just at like

around 45 or something like that you

know it's a little it's around 50 or

something like that so

i i don't think that this is showing any

fear as well

to me again at that part it's kind of

scary uh

finally we're seeing here so you know

volatility is rising especially i

thought

it's rising more pronounced in the high

yield space the corporate bond space

this is where

volatility is really picking up here and

it got really low do note that it got

down to six here

and down to six was actually at the same

as pre-coronavirus level so

i think this volatility in the high

yield space is what's pushing up high

yield are basically guys junk bonds junk

bonds are basically bonds that

yield uh very high because the default

risk is a bit high

and therefore they yield very high it's

it's close as you can get to

a a stock right so it's a high

risk bond now looking at this here this

i think is pushing things up very

quickly

and i think that's what's putting

pressure on the vix the stock market

uh volatility index to go up here so

we're probably going to see the short

term go up a little bit more i don't

think it's going to spike to like 50 or

60

but i think that it's going to go into

the 30s or 40s range in the next

one to maybe three weeks or so so we

should stay on guard for

that so listening to all this guys

what's my consensus and what i think you

should be doing

right now is the time to be hedging

that's right hedging

hedging what does that mean no that

doesn't mean trimming bushes that means

protecting your portfolio and

there's a number of ways to do this as

usual guys investing is and always will

be self-responsibility

uh and do note that guys i'm just

telling you what i think and i'm also

telling you what i am doing myself

it doesn't mean you have to follow me

take everything i say with a grain of

salt take everything what anybody says

with a grain of salt

that's usually just the best way to

proceed with any type of youtuber

influencer or anything related to any

type of information i think so

as usual with that out of the way guys

today you know you want to protect your

long-term portfolio

of course we're all saving this for

retirement but sometimes there's big

swings and when there's big swings

we don't usually usually we want to

protect ourselves from these big swings

because

we don't want to lose too much during

these big downturns otherwise we can get

what's margin call or we just don't have

enough cash to buy

when things look really cheap so to do

this i advocate that look you can

increase your cash position here in your

long-term portfolio

or in your short-term portfolio this is

where you do hedging or this is where

you

you know protect yourself and i usually

advocate buying cfds

yes i do use what's called ig ig's a big

securities company they've been around

since 1940

or 1976 or something like that i don't

know they're pretty safe

the link is below that's what i'm using

you can also sell futures

you could also just short etfs you could

short stocks there's a lot of ways to do

it

usually for me when i do something short

term

i want something simple and quick and

easy because it's short term

and i'm less concerned about the cost

because i'm only keeping this on short

term

so i usually use cfds or just futures

and just one click

and then you get a lot of margin and

just with a little bit of money you can

protect a lot

it's used for protection i'm not trying

to bet on the market crashing

it's just protecting my portfolio so

that's usually i think the best way to

use it and i think right now you need to

continue to use protection

because i don't think that this uh

downtrend is over

so that's my take today guys again the

link is below for

uh the company that i'm using you don't

need to use it it's all up to you

but uh do note that i think some

protection is gonna be needed especially

into the numbers today

uh i'll you know i think that these

numbers they need to come in probably

around like a hundred thousand

is the non-farm payroll support that we

need to look for yeah uh

that's probably the numbers that we need

if that comes in around then

then um yeah we could probably see the

uh

market stabilize but anything that's too

low or too high

and the bonus will just continue to go

up and the stock markets will just

continue to get hit

so stay tuned and guys just be aware in

about 12 hours from now we'll get that

report coming out

uh thanks guys for watching my channel

if you enjoyed today's content please

press the subscription button as well as

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subscribe to my channel as well thanks

so much guys have a

safe day and safe investing guys thanks

again