最近、積立NISA(正式名称: つみたてNISA)を始めたので、投資の勉強を始めました。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数(38.5万人)を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。
そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。
今回は第8回です。
2021年3月1日の12分6秒の動画です。アメリカの1.9超ドル追加景気刺激策についてです。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年3月1日「アメリカ株の転落、まだ終わってない ボラティリティに注目」です。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数(38.5万人)を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。
そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。
今回は第8回です。
2021年3月1日の12分6秒の動画です。アメリカの1.9超ドル追加景気刺激策についてです。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年3月1日「アメリカ株の転落、まだ終わってない ボラティリティに注目」です。
2021年3月1日 Stock Market Crash....its not Over
Hey everyone, Dan Takahashi here. Today right now as I'm looking at the markets, I'm seeing that markets across Asia are rebounding not just that we're seeing European futures US futures.
This is basically before the markets open. the futures market basically indicates how the markets are going to open in Europe and US right now. they're also indicating that the markets are going to open very strong. So everything looks like it's going back to normal last week that whole crash, oh, we don't even we we've forgotten all about it's done. I am super skeptical about this and I want to give you guys an update as to why I still think you should hold on to some of your protection your hedges your insurance policies because I don't think this is quite over yet and I want to explain to you why in a 5 to 10 minute youtube video.
【フレーズ】It's not just that.
【意味】それだけじゃないんだよ
futures: 先物This is basically before the markets open. the futures market basically indicates how the markets are going to open in Europe and US right now. they're also indicating that the markets are going to open very strong. So everything looks like it's going back to normal last week that whole crash, oh, we don't even we we've forgotten all about it's done. I am super skeptical about this and I want to give you guys an update as to why I still think you should hold on to some of your protection your hedges your insurance policies because I don't think this is quite over yet and I want to explain to you why in a 5 to 10 minute youtube video.
Those of you new to my channel my name is Dan I'm a former wall street guy former hedge fund guy. Please see the below description areas to who I am. Would appreciate if you guys subscribe to my channel, press that like button as well as guys if you enjoy my content please send my uh channel link uh to any of your friends and family to recommend my channel. I would so much appreciate your support uh in this as well.
残りのスクリプト
so guys
right now the time is march 1st
it is 12 54 p.m japan time meaning that
it is u.s eastern time zone still the
28th of uh
february and it is 10 54 uh p.m
so let's get first started is that let's
talk about the markets why the heck are
these markets going up right now
especially in asia things are on fire
right we're seeing the nikkei is up two
percent we're seeing
hang seng's up one uh china's up 0.8
australia's up 1.4
everything looks like it's hunky-dory
looking at all these futures the dow is
up 0.75
u.s uh s p 500 is up 0.87 nasdaq is up
1.23
russell's up 1.5 all the u.s indices are
showing a big rebound
why first and foremost
the main reason probably is because a
lot of the economic numbers came in
really strong today
uh we had a lot of what's called pmi
purchasing manufacturing index came in
from
all around the world and they were all
pretty good yes china was a nine month
low
but for the most part they were all good
japan was above 50 first time in two
years right
we saw australia was revised higher we
saw philippines was pretty good
for the most part all these numbers came
in pretty strong showing the economies
rebounding number one
number two on friday it was a big of a
disastrous fall
so we're having a bit of a just a
rebound this is natural markets and
friday's fall could have been just due
to month end effects the same thing
happened in january if you guys remember
the end of january
markets weren't whooped down and then
the beginning of february they went back
up so right now markets are kind of
looking at this and saying oh it's
probably the same thing that's going to
happen
so i think this technical and then
number three i think is you know
well a little bit of a reason here is
the uh
the house in the u.s passed the
coronavirus aid bill for 1.9 trillion
again this is just a joke to me because
there's no way it's going to pass the
senate
but at least i think markets are getting
some sort of you know
less anxiety for the fact that okay
we're going in the right direction on
something here so these
three reasons are probably for the
reason why we're seeing a bit of a
bounce today in the markets
uh but i'm still skeptical and i want to
show you why by looking at the charts so
what do i mean by the charts guys as
usual if you don't understand my chart
lingo
then please review my description area
the description area i have a lot of my
previous videos
uh so you can please review that also
guys i did forget to say this but
in my description area also i am trying
to uh recruit right now a new designer
i'm coming up with a new business a new
app
a new website everybody's going to be
able to use it stay tuned it's going to
be big
but i'm looking for a ux ui designer so
if you do
fulfill the criteria that i'm looking
for please see the below description
area
and send me an email if you're
interested sorry about that guys i
forgot to say that
so uh let's now get started looking at
the charts here
what am i talking about here dan why the
heck are you still worried about this so
first and foremost guys if you look at
any of these indices no matter what you
pull up
it's still showing that the macd is
falling that's right
it is falling uh we're seeing let's say
okay look at the dow here the dow
just started going into this declining
territory here
declining meaning the blue macd line is
below
the orange signal line and it's crossing
down
and it's going down it's showing a
negative direction not just
that but what worries me is this medium
term trend as well
looking here at these three macd peaks
there's a bit of a declining fashion
here this is then
not it's not perfect these charts are
never perfect they never will be perfect
but it's a bit of a declining one two
three
i don't like that that worries me a bit
as well
uh otherwise we're seeing here you know
the selling volume just in the futures
it was pretty big on friday here
gigantic i know it's month end the month
end is always hairy but
what worries me is the same thing
happened on the 29th of january and
markets won right back up
and now maybe investors are just
thinking oh it's just gonna go right
back up here
and markets just don't work like that
especially when everybody starts
thinking the same way
it almost never happens that's been my
20-year
experience not just my experience but
talking to thousands of other people
investing
for the last 20 years usually it doesn't
happen when a lot of people think of it
the same way that's just an
old saying and it is very true for
uh a long time so that worries me as
well
the dow also hasn't broken yet these big
levels like the 50-day
i think it needs to break through it it
hasn't broken through so
that also worries me i kind of feel like
today's just a
dead cat bounce because we saw that it
went through the
bollinger band here so it has a little
bit of a temporary bounce here
but i don't really think that this is
for real i still think that the
downtrend is kind of continuing
now how about looking at the nasdaq the
nasdaq is where really things started
in terms of the selling pressure the
nasdaq we should look at this chart
because this started going down
actually on february 16th now february
16th that started going down way before
the dow the dow wasn't going down at all
then
looking at the us futures the s p 500 it
kind of started going down more towards
like the 18th
uh the nasdaq i think started going down
the first so we should be looking at
this because it should be going
up first and yes it is going up right
now
but until we go through this block right
here and to this big candle and we
reverse
friday's trade we're still in the
negative downward territory here
and the macd is clearly declining rsi is
clearly declining it's below 43
i don't see this changing anytime soon
at the moment
and finally regarding volatility why is
volatility so important because
it measures risk it measures risk
premium volatility basically is a
measure of
what the option market indicates the
risk is in the market
the notional value of options is so much
bigger than that of stocks what the heck
am i talking about
there's a lot of stocks trading but the
amount of
options options are basically an option
as it is it's not a it's
a it's a right it's not an obligation
you have the right to buy or sell stock
in the future
those contracts if you add them all up
are way
many many many tens of hundreds times
bigger than the actual stock market so
this market is very important because
it's a future gauge of how
investors are predicting risk in the
market in the future
and looking at the options market the
first thing that i always look at
is yes the vix the vix is the 30-day
implied future volatility of the s p 500
it is a 30 day forecast
of what's going to happen in the s p 500
under the u.s stock market index
and this has just jumped higher and yes
we are back into a rising territory here
this is in a rising territory
pretty similar to how it was happening
in end of january but it's different
because end of january it went straight
up
and it went up too fast to me it went up
so fast that
the amount of fear got too high into the
market
it got extremely high at 37 and then we
rebounded right now it's still only at
28.
so to catch up to this level i could
continue to go higher and higher and
higher
so it's possible that this could still
go higher right now is not the same as
end of january that's what i think needs
to be focused on here
so looking at this trend here also just
looking specifically at
the implied volatility in let's say the
nasdaq qqq this is the
largest etf for the nasdaq 100 index i
like to look at this
implied volatility we see that there's a
butt load of
options trading again here in this
volume position
and not just that but this implied
volatility position
it's still pretty small it's gone up but
it just hasn't gone up
that much here indicating to me that
this could still go
a lot higher and if you look at stuff
like let's say
the s p 500 the s p 500 i think it's
even lower for this implied volatility
implied volatility again it's just a
measure of risk and when you look at
this implied volatility
look this thing's barely gone up here
right it's at 22.5
end of january it was much higher it was
around 26.2
so that could still go higher here and i
don't really see that this is still like
a lot of fear in the market markets stop
going down when
there's a lot of fear not when there's
just usually just a little bit so this
is not comparable to the end of january
yet
i don't think we're out of the woods yet
so last but not least guys what is my
opinion for what you should be doing
with your money and how to make money in
these markets
as usual guys i am here to give you just
my opinion but please take everything
with a grain of salt
in zest the investing is as it always
will be self responsibility guys so
please do take note guys that
i'm just giving you my ideas what i'm
doing myself but you don't need to
follow and i generally recommend
take everything with a grain of salt not
just what you hear from me but from
anybody don't rely on anybody take
control of your own destiny
control your own money because yes it
has to do with your destiny if you don't
have money you can't live so
control yourself don't hand it over to
some financial advisor robo advisor
control yourself understand how it moves
this is very important this is one of
the best
self investments decisions you could do
for your life now long term guys i
generally recommend there's nothing
really that's changed here
have a long-term portfolio that you
invest in every single month
bit by bit all divided out equally and
try to
follow this bottom region these
percentages here
now what i've been saying for the last
one week is
separate from your long-term investment
account is your
short-term investment account you're not
a day trader it's just a short
term and this right here is where you
put 30 to 10 of your net worth because
long term you put 70 to 90 and here
short term investing
i've been indicating that i think you
should be hedging hedging just basically
means putting insurance it's meaning
just put on protection
it's like you know you buy health
insurance just in case you got hit by a
car you buy car insurance in case
there's a car accident you buy life
insurance in case you die you want to
take care of your family
you buy insurance for your money you buy
insurance for your retirement yes of
course
and sometimes you need to do this and
right now is a good time to do it
i generally recommend that you do this
right now with etfs
you can just short and you can short
just the overall market whether it's the
dow jones etf dia
s p 500 etf or the qqq the nasdaq
it doesn't matter any of them will do i
generally recommend right now just the
overall markets the best
because already the qqq this has already
gone down a lot
so this one's probably a general overall
market barometer it's got a lot of
different sectors not just tech
just short a little bit of that right
now as some protection you'll feel
better in case the markets do go back
down it'll protect you from your
long-term portfolio
and if they go back up fine you lose a
little bit of money on your short term
but you're still making a butt load on
your long term
so it's okay this is the art of hedging
you can do it
anybody can do it you don't need to be a
hedge fund manager so i highly recommend
that you start
shorting just a little bit for
protection your long-term portfolio
thanks guys for watching if you enjoyed
today's content please press the like
button as well as subscribe to my
channel and recommend my channel please
guys
to your friends and family by uh giving
my channel link etc if you can post it
on youtube twitter i would very much
appreciate your support
thanks so much guys have a great day
safe investing and talk to you soon
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