最近、積立NISA(正式名称: つみたてNISA)を始めたので、投資の勉強を始めました。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数(38.5万人)を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。

そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。


今回は第8回です。
2021年3月1日の12分6秒の動画です。アメリカの1.9超ドル追加景気刺激策についてです。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年3月1日「アメリカ株の転落、まだ終わってない ボラティリティに注目」です。

2021年3月1日 Stock Market Crash....its not Over



Hey everyone, Dan Takahashi here. Today right now as I'm looking at the markets, I'm seeing that markets across Asia are rebounding not just that we're seeing European futures US futures.
【フレーズ】It's not just that.  
【意味】それだけじゃないんだよ
futures: 先物

This is basically before the markets open. the futures market basically indicates how the markets are going to open in Europe and US right now. they're also indicating that the markets are going to open very strong. So everything looks like it's going back to normal last week that whole crash, oh, we don't even we we've forgotten all about it's done. I am super skeptical about this and I want to give you guys an update as to why I still think you should hold on to some of your protection your hedges your insurance policies because I don't think this is quite over yet and I want to explain to you why in a 5 to 10 minute youtube video.

Those of you new to my channel my name is Dan I'm a former wall street guy former hedge fund guy. Please see the below description areas to who I am. Would appreciate if you guys subscribe to my channel, press that like button as well as guys if you enjoy my content please send my uh channel link uh to any of your friends and family to recommend my channel. I would so much appreciate your support uh in this as well.

残りのスクリプト

so guys

right now the time is march 1st

it is 12 54 p.m japan time meaning that

it is u.s eastern time zone still the

28th of uh

february and it is 10 54 uh p.m

so let's get first started is that let's

talk about the markets why the heck are

these markets going up right now

especially in asia things are on fire

right we're seeing the nikkei is up two

percent we're seeing

hang seng's up one uh china's up 0.8

australia's up 1.4

everything looks like it's hunky-dory

looking at all these futures the dow is

up 0.75

u.s uh s p 500 is up 0.87 nasdaq is up

1.23

russell's up 1.5 all the u.s indices are

showing a big rebound

why first and foremost

the main reason probably is because a

lot of the economic numbers came in

really strong today

uh we had a lot of what's called pmi

purchasing manufacturing index came in

from

all around the world and they were all

pretty good yes china was a nine month

low

but for the most part they were all good

japan was above 50 first time in two

years right

we saw australia was revised higher we

saw philippines was pretty good

for the most part all these numbers came

in pretty strong showing the economies

rebounding number one

number two on friday it was a big of a

disastrous fall

so we're having a bit of a just a

rebound this is natural markets and

friday's fall could have been just due

to month end effects the same thing

happened in january if you guys remember

the end of january

markets weren't whooped down and then

the beginning of february they went back

up so right now markets are kind of

looking at this and saying oh it's

probably the same thing that's going to

happen

so i think this technical and then

number three i think is you know

well a little bit of a reason here is

the uh

the house in the u.s passed the

coronavirus aid bill for 1.9 trillion

again this is just a joke to me because

there's no way it's going to pass the

senate

but at least i think markets are getting

some sort of you know

less anxiety for the fact that okay

we're going in the right direction on

something here so these

three reasons are probably for the

reason why we're seeing a bit of a

bounce today in the markets

uh but i'm still skeptical and i want to

show you why by looking at the charts so

what do i mean by the charts guys as

usual if you don't understand my chart

lingo

then please review my description area

the description area i have a lot of my

previous videos

uh so you can please review that also

guys i did forget to say this but

in my description area also i am trying

to uh recruit right now a new designer

i'm coming up with a new business a new

app

a new website everybody's going to be

able to use it stay tuned it's going to

be big

but i'm looking for a ux ui designer so

if you do

fulfill the criteria that i'm looking

for please see the below description

area

and send me an email if you're

interested sorry about that guys i

forgot to say that

so uh let's now get started looking at

the charts here

what am i talking about here dan why the

heck are you still worried about this so

first and foremost guys if you look at

any of these indices no matter what you

pull up

it's still showing that the macd is

falling that's right

it is falling uh we're seeing let's say

okay look at the dow here the dow

just started going into this declining

territory here

declining meaning the blue macd line is

below

the orange signal line and it's crossing

down

and it's going down it's showing a

negative direction not just

that but what worries me is this medium

term trend as well

looking here at these three macd peaks

there's a bit of a declining fashion

here this is then

not it's not perfect these charts are

never perfect they never will be perfect

but it's a bit of a declining one two

three

i don't like that that worries me a bit

as well

uh otherwise we're seeing here you know

the selling volume just in the futures

it was pretty big on friday here

gigantic i know it's month end the month

end is always hairy but

what worries me is the same thing

happened on the 29th of january and

markets won right back up

and now maybe investors are just

thinking oh it's just gonna go right

back up here

and markets just don't work like that

especially when everybody starts

thinking the same way

it almost never happens that's been my

20-year

experience not just my experience but

talking to thousands of other people

investing

for the last 20 years usually it doesn't

happen when a lot of people think of it

the same way that's just an

old saying and it is very true for

uh a long time so that worries me as

well

the dow also hasn't broken yet these big

levels like the 50-day

i think it needs to break through it it

hasn't broken through so

that also worries me i kind of feel like

today's just a

dead cat bounce because we saw that it

went through the

bollinger band here so it has a little

bit of a temporary bounce here

but i don't really think that this is

for real i still think that the

downtrend is kind of continuing

now how about looking at the nasdaq the

nasdaq is where really things started

in terms of the selling pressure the

nasdaq we should look at this chart

because this started going down

actually on february 16th now february

16th that started going down way before

the dow the dow wasn't going down at all

then

looking at the us futures the s p 500 it

kind of started going down more towards

like the 18th

uh the nasdaq i think started going down

the first so we should be looking at

this because it should be going

up first and yes it is going up right

now

but until we go through this block right

here and to this big candle and we

reverse

friday's trade we're still in the

negative downward territory here

and the macd is clearly declining rsi is

clearly declining it's below 43

i don't see this changing anytime soon

at the moment

and finally regarding volatility why is

volatility so important because

it measures risk it measures risk

premium volatility basically is a

measure of

what the option market indicates the

risk is in the market

the notional value of options is so much

bigger than that of stocks what the heck

am i talking about

there's a lot of stocks trading but the

amount of

options options are basically an option

as it is it's not a it's

a it's a right it's not an obligation

you have the right to buy or sell stock

in the future

those contracts if you add them all up

are way

many many many tens of hundreds times

bigger than the actual stock market so

this market is very important because

it's a future gauge of how

investors are predicting risk in the

market in the future

and looking at the options market the

first thing that i always look at

is yes the vix the vix is the 30-day

implied future volatility of the s p 500

it is a 30 day forecast

of what's going to happen in the s p 500

under the u.s stock market index

and this has just jumped higher and yes

we are back into a rising territory here

this is in a rising territory

pretty similar to how it was happening

in end of january but it's different

because end of january it went straight

up

and it went up too fast to me it went up

so fast that

the amount of fear got too high into the

market

it got extremely high at 37 and then we

rebounded right now it's still only at

28.

so to catch up to this level i could

continue to go higher and higher and

higher

so it's possible that this could still

go higher right now is not the same as

end of january that's what i think needs

to be focused on here

so looking at this trend here also just

looking specifically at

the implied volatility in let's say the

nasdaq qqq this is the

largest etf for the nasdaq 100 index i

like to look at this

implied volatility we see that there's a

butt load of

options trading again here in this

volume position

and not just that but this implied

volatility position

it's still pretty small it's gone up but

it just hasn't gone up

that much here indicating to me that

this could still go

a lot higher and if you look at stuff

like let's say

the s p 500 the s p 500 i think it's

even lower for this implied volatility

implied volatility again it's just a

measure of risk and when you look at

this implied volatility

look this thing's barely gone up here

right it's at 22.5

end of january it was much higher it was

around 26.2

so that could still go higher here and i

don't really see that this is still like

a lot of fear in the market markets stop

going down when

there's a lot of fear not when there's

just usually just a little bit so this

is not comparable to the end of january

yet

i don't think we're out of the woods yet

so last but not least guys what is my

opinion for what you should be doing

with your money and how to make money in

these markets

as usual guys i am here to give you just

my opinion but please take everything

with a grain of salt

in zest the investing is as it always

will be self responsibility guys so

please do take note guys that

i'm just giving you my ideas what i'm

doing myself but you don't need to

follow and i generally recommend

take everything with a grain of salt not

just what you hear from me but from

anybody don't rely on anybody take

control of your own destiny

control your own money because yes it

has to do with your destiny if you don't

have money you can't live so

control yourself don't hand it over to

some financial advisor robo advisor

control yourself understand how it moves

this is very important this is one of

the best

self investments decisions you could do

for your life now long term guys i

generally recommend there's nothing

really that's changed here

have a long-term portfolio that you

invest in every single month

bit by bit all divided out equally and

try to

follow this bottom region these

percentages here

now what i've been saying for the last

one week is

separate from your long-term investment

account is your

short-term investment account you're not

a day trader it's just a short

term and this right here is where you

put 30 to 10 of your net worth because

long term you put 70 to 90 and here

short term investing

i've been indicating that i think you

should be hedging hedging just basically

means putting insurance it's meaning

just put on protection

it's like you know you buy health

insurance just in case you got hit by a

car you buy car insurance in case

there's a car accident you buy life

insurance in case you die you want to

take care of your family

you buy insurance for your money you buy

insurance for your retirement yes of

course

and sometimes you need to do this and

right now is a good time to do it

i generally recommend that you do this

right now with etfs

you can just short and you can short

just the overall market whether it's the

dow jones etf dia

s p 500 etf or the qqq the nasdaq

it doesn't matter any of them will do i

generally recommend right now just the

overall markets the best

because already the qqq this has already

gone down a lot

so this one's probably a general overall

market barometer it's got a lot of

different sectors not just tech

just short a little bit of that right

now as some protection you'll feel

better in case the markets do go back

down it'll protect you from your

long-term portfolio

and if they go back up fine you lose a

little bit of money on your short term

but you're still making a butt load on

your long term

so it's okay this is the art of hedging

you can do it

anybody can do it you don't need to be a

hedge fund manager so i highly recommend

that you start

shorting just a little bit for

protection your long-term portfolio

thanks guys for watching if you enjoyed

today's content please press the like

button as well as subscribe to my

channel and recommend my channel please

guys

to your friends and family by uh giving

my channel link etc if you can post it

on youtube twitter i would very much

appreciate your support

thanks so much guys have a great day

safe investing and talk to you soon