最近、積立NISA(正式名称: つみたてNISA)を始めたので、投資の勉強を始めました。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。
そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。
今回は第5回です。
2021年2月26日の11分37秒の動画です。最近発生した米国債急落の分析結果です。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年2月26日「米国債利回り急騰、これから安定する!」です。
And there's a trend here the markets that are getting hit the most are the growth stocks. Why? Because all of this movement it's based on one thing.
Those of you new to my channel, my name is Dan I'm a former wall street guy, former hedge fund guy. Please see the below description as to who I am. I'm uh you know just been just doing YouTube since about uh uh June or July since last year. I just started this english channel. I have a Japanese channel that I started about a year ago. So I would appreciate if you guys subscribe, press that thumbs up button and also recommend my channel to any of your friends and family.
Today is currently right now February 26 Japan, Tokyo time 12:30 p.m meaning that it is the 25th in US, New York eastern time zone 10:30 p.m as well. So let's get started.
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。
そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。
今回は第5回です。
2021年2月26日の11分37秒の動画です。最近発生した米国債急落の分析結果です。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年2月26日「米国債利回り急騰、これから安定する!」です。
2021年2月26日 Stocks DROP on rising Treasury Yields...I think will Stabalize soon
Hey everyone, Dan Takahashi here. The markets today got smoked in the US again. Uh, we saw the Dow Jones today was up down today about 1.75 and then we saw the NASDAQ today was a down a whopping 3.52. They got absolutely smoked today not only that but the Russell, the small caps index, got smoked today.
【フレーズ】got smoked
【意味】打ち負かされる。簡単にやられる。
【フレーズ】whopping
【意味】副詞:なんと
And there's a trend here the markets that are getting hit the most are the growth stocks. Why? Because all of this movement it's based on one thing.
It's the US treasury yield. What the heck is this? Why does it matter? And most importantly how long is this going to last. Let me give you guys my take and my update.
treasury yield: 米国債利回り
【フレーズ】What the heck is this?
【意味】なんてこった。なんだこれは?
【フレーズ】my take
【意味】私の見解
なぜそれが重要なのか、そして最も重要なのは、これがどれくらい続くのかということです。
Those of you new to my channel, my name is Dan I'm a former wall street guy, former hedge fund guy. Please see the below description as to who I am. I'm uh you know just been just doing YouTube since about uh uh June or July since last year. I just started this english channel. I have a Japanese channel that I started about a year ago. So I would appreciate if you guys subscribe, press that thumbs up button and also recommend my channel to any of your friends and family.
Today is currently right now February 26 Japan, Tokyo time 12:30 p.m meaning that it is the 25th in US, New York eastern time zone 10:30 p.m as well. So let's get started.
残りのスクリプト
first and foremost guys what is
happening
what's bringing on all this havoc here
it's one and one thing only it's the
treasury yields and what the heck does
that mean
so treasury yields this basically is uh
the yield that people receive
from loaning money to the us government
that's right so the u.s
government it is the uh largest
government largest
economy and largest military in the
world they need
money to function they need money to pay
for all sorts of stuff including all
this coronavirus stuff so they take out
loans
and they take out loans in different
junctions it could be a one day loan it
could be 30 years loans
now when they take loans out just like
any other loan you get paid in interest
and this interest that's what's called
the yield and this thing
is skyrocketing recently mainly because
bond prices are getting hit so let me
give you a brief overview of what this
means again
i did this before in a bond video but
i'm just going to give you guys a brief
overview again because this is just very
important right now and i think that
a lot of people are sort of confused
about this so
this is the futures chart of 10 year
bond prices not the yield
but prices it's called the 10-year notes
here currently that 134
and this is a weekly chart over the last
10 years and it's showing that
lately it's been falling a lot but
before it fell
it was actually rising basically since
the end of 2018
it just went straight up here and the
reason why it was going straight up
is because the central bank in the us
continues to buy
and buy and buy and buy it's part of
what's called quantitative easing and
they're buying on purpose why
because when you buy bonds it decreases
the yield
what the heck does that mean it's the
same as a stock
there's a fixed payment of interest or
a dividend or whatever you want to call
it it's called the coupon payment
and this is fixed throughout the term of
a bond
but the price can change right so as the
price changes
even though the coupon payment is the
same this means the
actual yield will change so basically
what happens is
as the fed has been purchasing more and
more and more bonds the prices has been
going up
but basically the amount that's being
paid the coupon is the exact same
so the yield is basically how you
calculate yield is coupon
divided by price so coupon is not
changing right
but the price is going higher and higher
and higher and higher
that means the yield goes down it's that
simple guys it's not
rocket science it just means the yield
goes down as the price goes up
because the coupon is staying the same
it's just the same it's the same as when
a stock pays a dividend and the stock
price moves
it's really not that uh different and
now right now currently the price has
been going down
basically since around in the fall of
2020
so as this is going down the opposite is
happening
the yield is going up so it's just it's
the same thing
and now we're seeing here the 10-year
yield this is just the complete opposite
chart
of the actual price of the bond so the
price of the bond looks like this
and then the 10-year yield looks like
this it's just the exact opposite just
moves in the exact opposite
and we can see that now this yield has
been going up and up lately
since basically the fall of last year
and lately especially the last few weeks
it's been moving up very fast and this
is what's
really unnerving investors because it's
going up very quickly
and when it goes up fast if there's a
lot of things the market cares about and
what are these things the market cares
about
let me show you so the market really
cares number one because
it becomes more difficult to get loans
right
you have to the yield is not just what
you get paid for
uh from the us government for loaning
money to them
it also determines your mortgage rate it
determines your business loan when you
go to the bank it determines a lot of
different things so
now now you have to pay a little bit
more interest to get a loan so that's
usually not good for stock markets
not just that but when you calculate
valuation especially for high growth
stocks that don't earn a lot of money
these calculations it's really based on
interest rate
because the higher the interest rate it
basically means
the valuation of future cash flows gets
lower and lower it's called discounted
future cash flow now you don't need to
know the mechanics of this
it basically just means higher interest
rates
it's bad for valuation and especially
the really high valuation stocks
like growth stocks like tech stocks they
have very high multiples multiples this
just means p e ratio pb ratio ps ratio
price to sales price to earnings these
have naturally very high ratios
and as interest rates go up it's bad for
these stocks hands down
it's very bad so as this has been
happening and as this has been sort of
uh clamoring up recently and it's been
sort of on fire especially over the last
one or two weeks we're starting to see
the tech sector hit
getting hit the most the tech sector and
also we're seeing getting hit
uh the uh russell 2000 which is the
small cap sector so we can see today the
nasdaq is falling 3.56
this is just a weekly chart it just
started really falling
and we can also see the russell 2000
index
it just started falling as well now this
has been what's happening and the big
question that we have is
how long is this going to last and when
should you actually start
buying stocks when are these safe to buy
so let me go through a quick analysis of
this
what's really important with the
catalyst of all this right now is
the bond market the u.s treasury bond
market that is the cattle
especially the 10-year so you need to
watch the 10-year
and see when is this going crazy and
when is this gonna stop
uh and that's i think the real key here
if you look at the tenure right now
it's at 1.497 it's a big level it just
broke through 1.5
and if you look at the rsi again guys if
you don't know rsi if you don't know
macd
review my previous videos they're all in
the description area in my
video see the description area or look
at my channel home page
go to the playlist called investing for
beginners if you see the 1.496 here
this rsi right now is currently one of
the highest it's been
throughout history it's around right now
let's see here okay so it is the highest
point right now in the last 10 years
75.67 75.67 that's right
and i can't see a time right now that
it's been higher than this
over the last 10 years um
am i right here that's right not just
the last 10 years
but the last 20 years it's extremely
high right now uh at the last actually
i'm even going further back here the
only time the last time i was higher was
1994. so
that's a big amount of historical data
the yields have just gone up very fast
right now on a weekly basis
it's probably going to subside soon it's
probably going to go
down soon on a medium-term basis
looking at this short-term chart also do
note guys that
uh the reason why stock markets really
don't like uh
yields going up there's another reason
is because usually investors have two
choices when they go into the market
bonds or stocks sometimes commodities
too
and both stocks and bonds they pay yield
right stocks pay dividends
bonds pay coupon they get compared and
which one pays more
this ratio is very important if you look
at the s p
500 dividend yield divided by the
10-year treasury yield
this is super important because this
shows right here
that right now we're back down to
actually
negative as in it's below one
sorry not negative it's below one
meaning that the dividend yield on the s
p 500 right now is one point five
percent
and the dividend yield on the ten year
treasuries is actually a little bit
above 1.5 percent so they're right
around the same it's back to one right
now so
that's what investors don't really like
because then they say oh okay well
why would i invest in stocks when bonds
are going to pay me the same
yield so this is all what's going on
right now and now let me give you my
opinion at the very end here of what i
think you should be doing with your
money as usual guys investing is
self-responsibility so please do note
guys what i say in my videos is
purely what i'm thinking what i'm doing
don't need to follow but at the end of
the day
i just want you to guys know it's the
best usually to get information from a
lot of different places
and then make your own decisions so with
that out of the way guys my opinion is
that these 10-year yields right now
it's probably gonna subside soon this
has gone up a lot
very fast and i don't think the long
term
it's over as in it's probably going to
continue to go up but
just over the next few weeks it's
probably going to subside
as in this rsi has gotten out of hand
it's crazy high right now
it's probably going to go back down a
little bit down to like the 1.44 level
maybe even down to the 1.4 level and
then maybe it'll start to go back up
after that
so overall longer term it's still a
little bit dangerous
but just short term right now i think
we'll start we'll start to
see a bit of a stability here in this
bond yield just because the rsi is
so high right now and once we see that
start to stable
you'll see a little bit of stability in
the tech sector and the
uh russell sector but i don't think that
means you should go be buying these
stocks don't catch a falling knife
wait until things are over and it's
subside and it's calm
then you go back in right now it's still
not calm yet so there's no rush
wait until things calm down don't catch
a falling knife and then you go back
into the market
and you start buying things especially
for a short-term trend but
especially guys for long-term investors
don't let this bother you too much
continue to invest in your portfolio in
this range here especially
bonds right now they look cheap to me so
continue to
buy in this red area part of your
long-term portfolio don't forget to buy
this
even when everybody else is selling you
got to always hold a little bit because
these are historically a safe haven
asset
thanks guys for watching my video if you
enjoyed today's content please press the
like button below
subscribe to my channel and also would
appreciate if you forward my channel
link to any of your friends and family
thanks so much guys have a great day and
safe investing
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