最近、積立NISA(正式名称: つみたてNISA)を始めたので、投資の勉強を始めました。
YouTube界隈には投資系YouTuberが沢山いますが、日本で一番の登録者数を誇っている高橋ダンさんは、英語でも市場分析をアップロードしているので、英語の勉強にもなります。

そこで、投資の勉強と英語の勉強を「Dan Takahashi English Channel」でやっています。
YouTube動画を使った英語スクリプトのただのディクテーションなのですが、継続できるように努力したいですね。誰か参考になれば。


今回は第5回です。
2021年2月26日の11分37秒の動画です。最近発生した米国債急落の分析結果です。
日本語動画は日本語チャンネルの2021年2月26日「米国債利回り急騰、これから安定する!」です。

2021年2月26日 Stocks DROP on rising Treasury Yields...I think will Stabalize soon



Hey everyone, Dan Takahashi here. The markets today got smoked in the US again. Uh, we saw the Dow Jones today was up down today about 1.75 and then we saw the NASDAQ today was a down a whopping 3.52. They got absolutely smoked today not only that but the Russell, the small caps index, got smoked today.
【フレーズ】got smoked
【意味】打ち負かされる。簡単にやられる。
【フレーズ】whopping
【意味】副詞:なんと

And there's a trend here the markets that are getting hit the most are the growth stocks. Why? Because all of this movement it's based on one thing.

It's the US treasury yield. What the heck is this? Why does it matter? And most importantly how long is this going to last. Let me give you guys my take and my update.
treasury yield: 米国債利回り
【フレーズ】What the heck is this?
【意味】なんてこった。なんだこれは?
【フレーズ】my take
【意味】私の見解
なぜそれが重要なのか、そして最も重要なのは、これがどれくらい続くのかということです。

Those of you new to my channel, my name is Dan I'm a former wall street guy, former hedge fund guy. Please see the below description as to who I am. I'm uh you know just been just doing YouTube since about uh uh June or July since last year. I just started this english channel. I have a Japanese channel that I started about a year ago. So I would appreciate if you guys subscribe, press that thumbs up button and also recommend my channel to any of your friends and family.


Today is currently right now February 26 Japan, Tokyo time 12:30 p.m meaning that it is the 25th in US, New York eastern time zone 10:30 p.m as well. So let's get started.

残りのスクリプト


first and foremost guys what is

happening

what's bringing on all this havoc here

it's one and one thing only it's the

treasury yields and what the heck does

that mean

so treasury yields this basically is uh

the yield that people receive

from loaning money to the us government

that's right so the u.s

government it is the uh largest

government largest

economy and largest military in the

world they need

money to function they need money to pay

for all sorts of stuff including all

this coronavirus stuff so they take out

loans

and they take out loans in different

junctions it could be a one day loan it

could be 30 years loans

now when they take loans out just like

any other loan you get paid in interest

and this interest that's what's called

the yield and this thing

is skyrocketing recently mainly because

bond prices are getting hit so let me

give you a brief overview of what this

means again

i did this before in a bond video but

i'm just going to give you guys a brief

overview again because this is just very

important right now and i think that

a lot of people are sort of confused

about this so

this is the futures chart of 10 year

bond prices not the yield

but prices it's called the 10-year notes

here currently that 134

and this is a weekly chart over the last

10 years and it's showing that

lately it's been falling a lot but

before it fell

it was actually rising basically since

the end of 2018

it just went straight up here and the

reason why it was going straight up

is because the central bank in the us

continues to buy

and buy and buy and buy it's part of

what's called quantitative easing and

they're buying on purpose why

because when you buy bonds it decreases

the yield

what the heck does that mean it's the

same as a stock

there's a fixed payment of interest or

a dividend or whatever you want to call

it it's called the coupon payment

and this is fixed throughout the term of

a bond

but the price can change right so as the

price changes

even though the coupon payment is the

same this means the

actual yield will change so basically

what happens is

as the fed has been purchasing more and

more and more bonds the prices has been

going up

but basically the amount that's being

paid the coupon is the exact same

so the yield is basically how you

calculate yield is coupon

divided by price so coupon is not

changing right

but the price is going higher and higher

and higher and higher

that means the yield goes down it's that

simple guys it's not

rocket science it just means the yield

goes down as the price goes up

because the coupon is staying the same

it's just the same it's the same as when

a stock pays a dividend and the stock

price moves

it's really not that uh different and

now right now currently the price has

been going down

basically since around in the fall of

2020

so as this is going down the opposite is

happening

the yield is going up so it's just it's

the same thing

and now we're seeing here the 10-year

yield this is just the complete opposite

chart

of the actual price of the bond so the

price of the bond looks like this

and then the 10-year yield looks like

this it's just the exact opposite just

moves in the exact opposite

and we can see that now this yield has

been going up and up lately

since basically the fall of last year

and lately especially the last few weeks

it's been moving up very fast and this

is what's

really unnerving investors because it's

going up very quickly

and when it goes up fast if there's a

lot of things the market cares about and

what are these things the market cares

about

let me show you so the market really

cares number one because

it becomes more difficult to get loans

right

you have to the yield is not just what

you get paid for

uh from the us government for loaning

money to them

it also determines your mortgage rate it

determines your business loan when you

go to the bank it determines a lot of

different things so

now now you have to pay a little bit

more interest to get a loan so that's

usually not good for stock markets

not just that but when you calculate

valuation especially for high growth

stocks that don't earn a lot of money

these calculations it's really based on

interest rate

because the higher the interest rate it

basically means

the valuation of future cash flows gets

lower and lower it's called discounted

future cash flow now you don't need to

know the mechanics of this

it basically just means higher interest

rates

it's bad for valuation and especially

the really high valuation stocks

like growth stocks like tech stocks they

have very high multiples multiples this

just means p e ratio pb ratio ps ratio

price to sales price to earnings these

have naturally very high ratios

and as interest rates go up it's bad for

these stocks hands down

it's very bad so as this has been

happening and as this has been sort of

uh clamoring up recently and it's been

sort of on fire especially over the last

one or two weeks we're starting to see

the tech sector hit

getting hit the most the tech sector and

also we're seeing getting hit

uh the uh russell 2000 which is the

small cap sector so we can see today the

nasdaq is falling 3.56

this is just a weekly chart it just

started really falling

and we can also see the russell 2000

index

it just started falling as well now this

has been what's happening and the big

question that we have is

how long is this going to last and when

should you actually start

buying stocks when are these safe to buy

so let me go through a quick analysis of

this

what's really important with the

catalyst of all this right now is

the bond market the u.s treasury bond

market that is the cattle

especially the 10-year so you need to

watch the 10-year

and see when is this going crazy and

when is this gonna stop

uh and that's i think the real key here

if you look at the tenure right now

it's at 1.497 it's a big level it just

broke through 1.5

and if you look at the rsi again guys if

you don't know rsi if you don't know

macd

review my previous videos they're all in

the description area in my

video see the description area or look

at my channel home page

go to the playlist called investing for

beginners if you see the 1.496 here

this rsi right now is currently one of

the highest it's been

throughout history it's around right now

let's see here okay so it is the highest

point right now in the last 10 years

75.67 75.67 that's right

and i can't see a time right now that

it's been higher than this

over the last 10 years um

am i right here that's right not just

the last 10 years

but the last 20 years it's extremely

high right now uh at the last actually

i'm even going further back here the

only time the last time i was higher was

1994. so

that's a big amount of historical data

the yields have just gone up very fast

right now on a weekly basis

it's probably going to subside soon it's

probably going to go

down soon on a medium-term basis

looking at this short-term chart also do

note guys that

uh the reason why stock markets really

don't like uh

yields going up there's another reason

is because usually investors have two

choices when they go into the market

bonds or stocks sometimes commodities

too

and both stocks and bonds they pay yield

right stocks pay dividends

bonds pay coupon they get compared and

which one pays more

this ratio is very important if you look

at the s p

500 dividend yield divided by the

10-year treasury yield

this is super important because this

shows right here

that right now we're back down to

actually

negative as in it's below one

sorry not negative it's below one

meaning that the dividend yield on the s

p 500 right now is one point five

percent

and the dividend yield on the ten year

treasuries is actually a little bit

above 1.5 percent so they're right

around the same it's back to one right

now so

that's what investors don't really like

because then they say oh okay well

why would i invest in stocks when bonds

are going to pay me the same

yield so this is all what's going on

right now and now let me give you my

opinion at the very end here of what i

think you should be doing with your

money as usual guys investing is

self-responsibility so please do note

guys what i say in my videos is

purely what i'm thinking what i'm doing

don't need to follow but at the end of

the day

i just want you to guys know it's the

best usually to get information from a

lot of different places

and then make your own decisions so with

that out of the way guys my opinion is

that these 10-year yields right now

it's probably gonna subside soon this

has gone up a lot

very fast and i don't think the long

term

it's over as in it's probably going to

continue to go up but

just over the next few weeks it's

probably going to subside

as in this rsi has gotten out of hand

it's crazy high right now

it's probably going to go back down a

little bit down to like the 1.44 level

maybe even down to the 1.4 level and

then maybe it'll start to go back up

after that

so overall longer term it's still a

little bit dangerous

but just short term right now i think

we'll start we'll start to

see a bit of a stability here in this

bond yield just because the rsi is

so high right now and once we see that

start to stable

you'll see a little bit of stability in

the tech sector and the

uh russell sector but i don't think that

means you should go be buying these

stocks don't catch a falling knife

wait until things are over and it's

subside and it's calm

then you go back in right now it's still

not calm yet so there's no rush

wait until things calm down don't catch

a falling knife and then you go back

into the market

and you start buying things especially

for a short-term trend but

especially guys for long-term investors

don't let this bother you too much

continue to invest in your portfolio in

this range here especially

bonds right now they look cheap to me so

continue to

buy in this red area part of your

long-term portfolio don't forget to buy

this

even when everybody else is selling you

got to always hold a little bit because

these are historically a safe haven

asset

thanks guys for watching my video if you

enjoyed today's content please press the

like button below

subscribe to my channel and also would

appreciate if you forward my channel

link to any of your friends and family

thanks so much guys have a great day and

safe investing